# Provenance Impact Report

- Run ID: `20260807T102554Z-0469a8`
- State: **PUBLISHED**
- Started: 2026-08-07 10:25:54.982638+00:00
- Completed: 2026-08-07 10:26:10.962530+00:00

## Proposed Change

- Asset: `urn:li:dataset:(urn:li:dataPlatform:kafka,payments.authorized_transaction_events,PROD)`
- Source column: `transaction_amount_usd`
- Scenario: n/a
- Request: The payment gateway will begin sending transaction_amount_usd in cents rather than dollars for all authorized payments, so values will become 100 times larger while the column name remains unchanged.


## DataHub Context (through MCP)

- Source: `urn:li:dataset:(urn:li:dataPlatform:kafka,payments.authorized_transaction_events,PROD)` (payments.authorized_transaction_events)
- Selected field: `transaction_amount_usd`
- Owners: `urn:li:corpGroup:payment-fraud-monitoring`
- Tags: Production, PaymentFraud, RealTimeML

### Complete lineage

| Hop | Upstream | Downstream | Relationship |
| ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | `urn:li:dataset:(urn:li:dataPlatform:kafka,payments.authorized_transaction_events,PROD)` | `urn:li:dataset:(urn:li:dataPlatform:postgres,fraud.realtime_payment_features,PROD)` | lineage |
| 2 | `urn:li:dataset:(urn:li:dataPlatform:postgres,fraud.realtime_payment_features,PROD)` | `urn:li:mlFeature:(realtime_payment_risk_features,transaction_amount_usd)` | lineage |
| 3 | `urn:li:mlFeature:(realtime_payment_risk_features,transaction_amount_usd)` | `urn:li:mlModel:(urn:li:dataPlatform:mlflow,payment_fraud_detector_v3,PROD)` | lineage |

### Affected models

- `urn:li:mlModel:(urn:li:dataPlatform:mlflow,payment_fraud_detector_v3,PROD)` ➔ payment_fraud_detector_v3

### Evidence URNs

- `urn:li:dataset:(urn:li:dataPlatform:kafka,payments.authorized_transaction_events,PROD)`
- `urn:li:dataset:(urn:li:dataPlatform:postgres,fraud.realtime_payment_features,PROD)`
- `urn:li:mlFeature:(realtime_payment_risk_features,transaction_amount_usd)`
- `urn:li:mlModel:(urn:li:dataPlatform:mlflow,payment_fraud_detector_v3,PROD)`

## Experiment Plan

- Target asset: `urn:li:dataset:(urn:li:dataPlatform:kafka,payments.authorized_transaction_events,PROD)`
- Rationale Explanation: **_The payment gateway will begin sending 'transaction_amount_usd' in cents instead of dollars, making values 100 times larger. This experiment simulates the impact of this change on the 'payment_fraud_detector_v3' model by scaling the 'transaction_amount_usd' column by a factor of 100 for all records._**
- Expected signals: none

| # | Operator | Column | Fraction | Value |
| ---: | --- | --- | ---: | --- |
| 1 | `scale_numeric` | `transaction_amount_usd` | 1.0 | 100.0 |

## Observed Results

### Experiment 1: `scale_numeric`

- Column: `transaction_amount_usd`
- Duration (_how long the mutation and mutated inference took_)[ms]: 47.08080000091286
- Error: n/a

| Metric | Observed value |
| --- | ---: |
| `baseline_auc` | 0.8092934782608696 |
| `mutated_auc` | 0.5326902173913043 |
| `auc_drop` | 0.2766032608695653 |
| `prediction_flip_rate` | 0.942 |
| `mean_absolute_probability_shift` | 0.8883913766970861 |
| `inference_error_rate` | 0.0 |

- Rows selected: 500 / 500
- Before summary: `{"maximum": 1065.57, "mean": 125.77402, "minimum": 5.9, "missing": 0}`
- After summary: `{"maximum": 106557.0, "mean": 12577.402, "minimum": 590.0, "missing": 0}`

## Deterministic Decision

- Status: **BLOCK**
- Summary: Blocked by 2 deterministic safety rule(s).

### Triggered policy rules

| Experiment | Metric | Observed | Rule | Result | Reason |
| ---: | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | `auc_drop` | 0.2766032608695653 | > 0.05 | BLOCK | AUC drop 0.276603 exceeded block threshold 0.050000 |
| 1 | `prediction_flip_rate` | 0.942 | > 0.15 | BLOCK | Prediction flip rate 0.942000 exceeded block threshold 0.150000 |

## Publication

- Local JSON: `mockup_data/artifacts/runs/20260807T102554Z-0469a8.json`
- Local Markdown: `mockup_data/artifacts/runs/20260807T102554Z-0469a8.md`
- Remote succeeded: yes
- DataHub tag: Provenance-BLOCK
- DataHub document: urn:li:document:shared-b35ae845-7768-458b-8994-3928479dc899
- Remote error: n/a